For most crash games, the chance that a round reaches at least a multiplier x is about (1 − edge) ÷ x. With a 1% house edge, that means a 49.5% chance of reaching 2x, 9.9% for 10x and 0.99% for 100x.
That single formula answers most "what are the odds" questions about crash. This guide shows where it comes from, gives the full table, and works through three questions people actually ask.
Where the formula comes from
A common crash formula turns a random number R (uniform between 0 and 1) into a bust point:
bust = (1 − edge) ÷ (1 − R)
Ask: when is the bust point at least x?
bust ≥ xmeans(1 − edge) ÷ (1 − R) ≥ x.- Rearranged:
1 − R ≤ (1 − edge) ÷ x. - Because R is uniform, so is
1 − R. The chance that a uniform number is at most some value v is just v. - So
P(bust ≥ x) = (1 − edge) ÷ x.
That is exact for the raw formula. Real games round down to two decimals and floor results at 1.00x, which shifts the numbers by a tiny amount. That's why we write "approximately". We checked the approximation with a simulation of one million rounds: at 1% edge, 49.47% of simulated rounds reached 2x (formula: 49.5%) and 9.91% reached 10x (formula: 9.9%).
The odds table
All values are computed from the formula above. "1 in N" is the average wait, 1 ÷ probability.
| Target (x) | Chance at 1% edge | 1 in … (1% edge) | Chance at 3% edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.01x | 98.02% | 1.02 | 96.04% |
| 1.20x | 82.50% | 1.21 | 80.83% |
| 1.50x | 66.00% | 1.52 | 64.67% |
| 2.00x | 49.50% | 2.02 | 48.50% |
| 3.00x | 33.00% | 3.03 | 32.33% |
| 5.00x | 19.80% | 5.05 | 19.40% |
| 10.00x | 9.90% | 10.10 | 9.70% |
| 20.00x | 4.95% | 20.20 | 4.85% |
| 50.00x | 1.98% | 50.51 | 1.94% |
| 100.00x | 0.99% | 101.01 | 0.97% |
| 1,000.00x | 0.10% | 1,010.10 | 0.10% |
Three patterns are worth noticing:
- Doubling the target roughly halves the chance. 2x is about 49.5%, 4x is about 24.75%, 8x is about 12.4%. The relationship is a straight 1/x.
- The edge is a constant haircut. Every chance at 1% edge is 99% of the "fair" value 1/x. At 3% edge it is 97%.
- Low targets are not safe. Even 1.20x fails about 1 round in 6 (17.5%). A loss at a low target costs your whole stake, while a win pays only 20%.
Worked example 1: "How often will I hit 3x?"
Use the table: 33.0% at 1% edge. Over 300 rounds you would expect about 99 rounds to reach 3x. But expected doesn't mean guaranteed. The number of hits in 300 rounds follows a binomial spread; one standard deviation is √(300 × 0.33 × 0.67) ≈ 8.1 rounds, so anywhere from roughly 83 to 115 hits would be unremarkable.
Worked example 2: "What are the odds of two 10x rounds in a row?"
Rounds have no memory of each other, so multiply: 0.099 × 0.099 = 0.0098, or about 0.98%, close to 1 in 102. Note that this is about the same as a single round reaching 100x. Chaining targets doesn't create better odds than going for the combined multiplier directly; it just splits the same bet into two steps.
Worked example 3: "How long until 100x shows up?" (fictional session)
The figures in this example are invented for illustration. A player says they will "wait for a 100x" and bets only when they feel it is due. The chance per round is 0.99% no matter what came before, so the wait is a geometric distribution:
| Rounds watched | Chance at least one 100x has appeared |
|---|---|
| 50 | 39.2% |
| 101 | 63.4% |
| 200 | 86.3% |
| 300 | 94.9% |
| 500 | 99.3% |
Even after the "average" 101 rounds, more than a third of the time no 100x has appeared. And watching rounds without betting does not change the odds of the next round at all. There is no "due".
How to use the table on any site
A short checklist for applying the formula to a game you are looking at:
- Find the stated edge. If a site says "99% RTP" the edge is 1%. If it says nothing, assume the worst.
- Check the formula. Confirm the site uses a
(1 − edge) ÷ (1 − R)style formula. Some use different maths or add an instant-bust share on top. - Check for a payout cap. A cap on winnings per round cuts the value of high targets, so the real chance-weighted return there is lower than the table implies.
- Compute your target. Chance ≈ (1 − edge) ÷ target. Write it down before you play.
- Translate to losses. A 49.5% chance at 2x feels close to even, but every round still has a 1% expected loss. The expected value guide shows how that adds up.
What the odds do not tell you
The formula tells you how often, on average, a round reaches a value. It can't tell you what the next round will do, it can't be "beaten" by tracking past rounds, and no target turns the haircut into a gain. If you play, the right use of this table is to understand the price you are paying, not to find a way around it. For the systems people try anyway, see martingale and other betting systems on crash.
FAQ
What is the chance a crash round reaches 2x?
With a 1% house edge it is about 0.99 ÷ 2 = 49.5%. With a 3% edge it is about 48.5%. So slightly less than a coin flip either way.
What does "1 in 101" mean for 100x?
It means a round reaches 100x about once every 101 rounds on average (100 ÷ 0.99). It does not mean it will happen within 101 rounds; you could wait much longer.
Why does a bigger edge matter so little in the table?
Because each probability is only scaled by (1 − edge). Going from 1% to 3% cuts every chance by about 2%. That looks small per round but it triples the expected loss over time.
Does the formula work for every crash game?
Only for games that use this type of formula. Many do, but check the site's published formula, edge and any payout cap.